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Market analysis
In terms of futures, the palm oil 2505 contract closed at 9004 yuan/ton yesterday, down 198 yuan or 2.15% month on month; Yesterday's closing price of soybean oil 2505 contract was 7590 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 304 yuan, a decrease of 3.85%; Yesterday's closing price of vegetable oil 2505 contract was 8740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan or 3.10% compared to the previous month. In terms of spot goods, the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong region is 10040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.10% compared to the previous period. The spot basis is P05+1036, an increase of 188 yuan compared to the previous period; The spot price of first grade soybean oil in Tianjin is 7840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton or 2.85% compared to the previous period. The spot basis is Y05+250, an increase of 74 yuan compared to the previous period; The spot price of fourth grade vegetable oil in Jiangsu region is 8820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan or 3.08% compared to the previous period. The spot basis is OI05+80, with no change compared to the previous period.
Recent market news summary: On December 18th, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that China's palm oil imports in November were 170000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 61.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2.48 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38.6%. China's soybean oil imports in November were 10000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 84.9%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 270000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in China in November was 200000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.8%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 1.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.8%. The C/F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipping schedule) is 1106 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; The C/F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipping schedule) is $1050 per ton, a decrease of $13 per ton compared to the previous trading day. Imported rapeseed oil C/F quotation: Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipping schedule) at $1050/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian vegetable oil (February shipping schedule) is priced at $1020 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils and fats fluctuated and fell sharply, influenced by the decline in BMD crude palm oil futures and US soybean oil, coupled with relatively weak fundamentals. In terms of vegetable oil, coupled with high vegetable oil inventory, oil factory transactions are light, and the fundamentals are weak. Due to the shortage of spot soybean oil and palm oil, vegetable oil factories are also raising prices, and the short-term basis may remain strong. But vegetable oil still has a supply-demand pattern of oversupply, and it is expected that vegetable oil will continue to track the fluctuations of palm oil. The prospect of Sino Canadian trade is an important factor affecting the price of vegetable oil.
Oil: Demand is relatively loose, and oil prices are weak and fluctuating
Market analysis
In terms of futures, the Douyi 2501 contract closed at 3741 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day. In terms of spot goods, the spot price spread of edible beans in Bayan, Heilongjiang Province increased by 45% compared to the previous day, and the spot price spread of edible beans in Baoqing, Heilongjiang Province increased by 45% compared to the previous day; The spot price difference of edible beans in Fujin, Heilongjiang Province is A01+79, up 45% from the previous day; The spot price difference of edible beans in Shangzhi area, Heilongjiang Province is A01+119, up 45% from the previous day.
Market News Summary: On Tuesday, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures hit a new contract low due to good crop conditions in Brazil and weak demand from China for US soybeans. The most actively traded January soybean futures contract on CBOT closed down 5-1/4 cents, settling at $9.76-3/4 per bushel. According to foreign media reports, soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell on Tuesday, with multiple contracts hitting new lows, including the benchmark period closing down about 0.5%. A trader said that high soybean yields are expected in South America, and weak demand from China for US soybeans is putting pressure on the soybean market, which is why the contract has hit a historic low. The daily export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture shows that private exporters reported selling 187000 tons of soybeans to Spain and 132000 tons to unknown destinations, both delivered in 2024/25.
Yesterday, the soybean market experienced a decline. In terms of spot prices, domestic soybean prices remained stable with some increases, mainly in some southern regions, while prices in northern regions remained relatively stable. At present, there is not much surplus soybean grain among grassroots farmers, and traders have expressed that it is slightly difficult to harvest soybeans. Farmers have shown reluctance to sell. Due to limited overall downstream demand, the current market circulation of soybeans is mainly concentrated in the hands of traders, and the grain sales situation is relatively average. Traders generally have a certain inventory, and market competition is somewhat fierce. As the end of the year approaches, we will focus on the changes in demand for downstream soy products, protein factories, and policy news. In the short term, under the influence of the loose domestic soybean market, the driving force for soybean prices to rise is insufficient, and it is expected that soybean prices will mainly stabilize in the future.
Feed: spot prices weaken, soybean meal runs weakly
Corn perspective
Market analysis
In terms of futures, the corn 2505 contract closed at 2174 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous day; The contract for corn starch 2503 is 2431 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.65% from the previous day. In terms of spot goods, the spot price of corn in Liaoning region is 1970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of C05-204, a decrease of 8 from the previous day; The spot price of corn starch in Jilin region was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis difference of CS03+219, up 16% from the previous day.
According to recent market news and data from Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company, as of December 15th, the progress of corn planting in the first quarter of 2024/25 in Brazil was 75.0%, compared to 72.2% a week ago and 73.5% in the same period last year. It is expected that the total corn production in Brazil in 2024/25 will be 1196.33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The first season's corn production was 22.61 million tons, and the second season's corn production was 94.63 million tons. It is expected that Brazil's corn export volume in 2024/25 will be 34 million tons, lower than the previous year's 36 million tons, and will be the lowest export volume since 2020/21. The expected domestic consumption is a record high of 87.03 million tons, higher than the previous year's 84.24 million tons.
Yesterday's corn futures price fluctuated narrowly, and on the supply side, the current temperature drop in the main production areas is favorable