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In 2025, the corn market in the Americas will usher in a crucial year, with market participants expecting Trump to return to office and trade dynamics to change as pessimism about prices intensifies.
Analysts expect strong demand for corn in the United States in 2025, driven by strong ethanol production and exports. Platts, a subsidiary of S&P Global Commodities Watch, evaluates that offshore prices along the Gulf Coast of Mexico are competitive, with trading prices lower than Brazil and Argentina since November last year.
Sources say that in Brazil, domestic demand (mainly for ethanol) continues to rise, which is expected to have an impact on exports and reduce competitiveness in the global market, while Argentina's expected output may find potential opportunities in trade frictions.
The 'oversupply' from South America is expected to bring downward pressure on prices in the coming year, but market participants do not rule out the possibility of upward support from potential upgrades in the Black Sea region.
The US corn market awaits Trump's progress
Commodity Insights' forecast for US corn prices for the marketing year 2025-26 (September to August) is $3.90 per bushel, with the highest futures trading range for July at $5.08 per barrel, and the lowest expected price for December 2025 at $3.17 per barrel.
Analysts predict that due to strong demand for US corn, corn futures are facing upward risks, the soybean market is facing downward risks, and changes in South American production may bring two types of risks.
Analysts say that the estimated corn production in the United States for 2025-26 is 15.66 billion barrels, with exports expected to reach 2.4 billion barrels and a carryover of 2.062 billion barrels.
In 2025, Trump's return to the White House and the possible restoration of sanctions are seen as decisive and will have an impact on trade between the United States, China, and Mexico. Mexico is the largest destination for corn in the United States.
However, domestic biofuel policies remain a glimmer of hope for the United States, with strong ethanol production expected to support exports.
Mary, Senior Analyst at Commodity Insights kate. Mary Kate Porath said, "The strong ethanol and export use of corn is expected to support corn prices, and by 2025, American farmers will choose to grow corn instead of soybeans
Commodity Insights predicts that the amount of corn ethanol used in the United States from 2025 to 2026 will be 5.5 billion barrels, unchanged from last year.
Porath added that potential trade frictions with China will seriously affect soybean prices and subsequently lower corn prices, while retaliatory responses to US trade policies may significantly reduce US corn exports to Mexico and ethanol supplies to Canada.
Domestic demand puts pressure on Brazil's exports
Analysts predict that Brazil's local corn production for the 2024-25 fiscal year (February January) will be 128 million tons, with an estimated export volume of 37 million tons.
AgRural's market analyst Daniele Siqueira said, "Prices in some places are at their highest levels since mid-2023 (nominal prices), which will lead to an increase in the planting area of the second season crop (" safrinha ") in 2025, accounting for about 75% of production and a large part of the country's exports
However, it is expected that the production in 2024-25 will not exceed the record set two years ago. "Considering that domestic demand in Brazil will grow again in 2025 due to favorable conditions in several new ethanol plants and animal feed industries, Brazil may become a timid exporter in 2025," Siqueira added.
Analysts say that nearly 20 corn ethanol plants are currently under construction or expansion, and are expected to start operating between 2025 and 2026.
It is expected that the US China trade friction will support supply from Brazil, which is the largest corn exporting country in Asia and also shares a comprehensive and favorable trade ecosystem.
However, the demand for corn in Brazil is on the rise, and this South American country is promoting ethanol production, which is expected to have an impact on corn exports and reduce its competitiveness in the global market.
King Korn Agricultural Market Analyst Gerardo Isoldi said, "Corn ethanol production is expected to reach 8.7 billion liters in the 2025-26 season, requiring approximately 19.4 million tons of corn. It is estimated that corn ethanol production, combined with increased cattle farm operations, will drive domestic corn consumption to 87.7 million tons this quarter
Isoldi said, "By 2032-2034, the consumption of (ethanol corn) is expected to reach 109.8 million tons, an increase of 30.4%, while within the upper limit of the forecast, (total) domestic consumption may climb to 130.3 million tons, an increase of 54.7% from 2023-24
Isoldi said that in the next 10 years, Brazil's corn sales to the international market are expected to reach 58.3 million tons. However, with the increase in corn biofuel production, food demand will compete with the energy industry, which may drive up prices
Argentina's weather and supply expectations for China
Analysts predict that with favorable weather conditions, Argentina's local production for 2024-25 (March to February) will be 47 million tons, while exports are expected to be 33.5 million tons.
Analysts say that domestic demand for 2024-25 is expected to be 15.3 million tons, reflecting "a recovery in production, a decline in prices compared to recent years, and weak export demand, all of which support the use of domestic corn.
Market participants expect that potential US China trade frictions will support corn exports to China, which approved supplies from Argentina in May.
Guido, Senior Economist at Rosario Board of Trade Guido D'Angelo said, "Now that the US elections have ended, China's imports of agricultural products may slow down, and Argentina may have the opportunity to increase its grain exports to China
D'Angelo continued, "However, potential production challenges in the Black Sea region and the United States may reduce global exportable supply, and the already unfavorable production environment in the Black Sea region, coupled with the escalation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, may exert potential upward pressure on prices. US China trade frictions will also be a key factor in analyzing international prices for the upcoming harvest season.
In addition, Javier, an agronomist and former Deputy Minister of Agricultural Markets at the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture Preciado Javier Precado Pati? Said that the "overproduction" in South America, coupled with the Dafengshou (Salad of assorted fresh vegetables) in the United States, may bring downward pressure on prices.
Patinio said, "This year, food prices in the agricultural sector have remained stable, and only by increasing production in the 2024-25 election can Argentine farmers achieve positive results. Fortunately, the early season rainfall has created a foundation for a good harvest“