Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of Agricultural Products in China in December 2024-Corporate news-Zhengzhou Jiuyu Supply Chain Management Corporation

Soybeans: This month, the soybean output for the 2024/25 season has been slightly increased, and the demand data remains unchanged. Domestic soybeans are in the concentrated listing period, with sufficient soybean supplies in the main production areas. High - protein soybeans are of good quality and low price, and the sales progress is faster than in previous years. The amount of high - oil and low - protein soybeans in Northeast China entering the crushing field is higher than in normal years, and purchases and sales are relatively active. The spot market price remains stable overall.

Cotton: The picking of cotton for the 2024/25 season has basically ended, and the processing and sales progress is relatively fast. According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of December 5, the national new - cotton processing rate and sales rate were 75.7% and 15.4%, respectively, 1.9 percentage points and 6.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. During the cotton growth period, the climate conditions were generally suitable, pests and diseases occurred slightly, and the actual yield per unit area was higher than expected. This month, the cotton output has been increased by 180,000 tons to 5.9 million tons. The production - demand gap continues to narrow, and imports have been reduced by 300,000 tons to 1.7 million tons. The ending inventory has been reduced by 120,000 tons to 8.05 million tons.

Edible Vegetable Oil: This month's forecast shows that due to the increase in domestic soybean and cotton output, China's edible vegetable oil output for the 2024/25 season has been adjusted to increase to 30.09 million tons. Affected by the significant increase in international palm oil prices due to tight supply in major palm - oil - producing countries in Southeast Asia, China's edible vegetable oil imports have been adjusted down to 7.73 million tons. Recently, winter rapeseed in major domestic production areas has successively entered the transplanting and survival period. By the end of November, there has been sufficient light and heat in most areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the southwest region, and the soil moisture is suitable, which is beneficial to the growth and transplanting survival of rapeseed. In the later period, it is necessary to guard against the adverse effects of phased low - temperature, snow, and freezing weather in southern production areas and drought in the Jianghuai and Jiangnan regions.

Sugar: This month's forecast for China's sugar supply and demand situation remains the same as last month. The production progress of beet sugar is more than half - way through, and the production of cane sugar has started earlier. The national sugar production and sales progress is faster than the same period last year. By the end of November 2024, the cumulative national sugar production was 1.37 million tons, an increase of 480,000 tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar sales were 610,000 tons, an increase of 290,000 tons year - on - year. Since November, Guangxi has mainly had fine weather, which is beneficial to sugar accumulation and sugarcane cutting and transportation. Yunnan has had more rain and less sunshine, and attention needs to be paid to the impact of weather on sugar accumulation and crushing progress in the later period. Currently, the supply speed of new sugar is accelerating, combined with sugar imports for supplementation, and the market supply is generally abundant. With the coming of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, dealers' replenishment purchases have successively started, which is conducive to the recovery of market demand. Internationally, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is coming to an end. The sugar production has decreased as expected, and sugar inventories are at a historical low, providing support for international sugar prices.