Back
On a macro level, investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again, enhancing some optimism about economic growth and energy demand. The report released by the Labor Department on Thursday showed that producer prices rose 0.4% month on month in November, while economists surveyed earlier expected a 0.2% rise. The day before, another set of inflation data from the United States consolidated the bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week. The US dollar index rose 0.375% in late trading on Thursday, closing at 106.95. According to CMEFedWatch Tool, the market has almost completely digested the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on December 17-18, compared to approximately 78% a week ago.
On the supply side and geographically, Israeli military officials stated on the 12th local time that as Iran's proxy group in the Middle East weakens and the Assad regime in Syria steps down, the Israeli Air Force is preparing for possible attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities. At present, the Israeli Air Force has destroyed the vast majority of Syria's air defense systems, believing that there is now an opportunity to launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. On the other hand, the IEA believes that the global average daily oil supply in November this year was 103.4 million barrels, an increase of 130000 barrels month on month and 220000 barrels year-on-year, due to the recovery of oil production in Libya and Kazakhstan. Even if OPEC and its production reducing allies do not lift their production cuts, the daily total oil supply is expected to increase by 630000 barrels this year, and the daily production will increase by 1.9 million barrels in 2025, reaching 104.8 million barrels per day. In the past two years, the daily crude oil supply of countries outside OPEC and its production reduction allies has increased by about 1.5 million barrels, with the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina experiencing the largest increase in supply. Secondly, if OPEC and its production reducing allies continue to maintain their current production quotas, the IEA believes that there will be a daily supply surplus of 950000 barrels in the market balance next year. If the organization lifts the voluntary production cuts from the end of March 2025, the global daily surplus of oil supply will rise to 1.4 million barrels.
On the demand side, the IEA has raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 90000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day, mainly due to China's recently announced economic stimulus measures, which are expected to increase global oil consumption to 103.9 million barrels per day. However, the IEA has lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year by 80000 barrels per day to 840000 barrels per day, mainly due to lower than expected oil production in non OECD countries such as Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. The IEA stated that weak demand growth in the next two years reflects an overall poor macroeconomic environment and constantly changing patterns of oil usage. Petrochemical raw materials will drive demand growth, while the demand for transportation fuels will continue to be constrained by behavioral and technological advancements.
Strategy: The geopolitical situation is not yet fully stable, and the crude oil market is mixed with long and short positions. In the short term, oil prices are supported by OPEC+'s delayed production increase. Crude oil supply still faces the risk of oversupply in the medium and long term, with oil prices mainly fluctuating weakly.