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Due to the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, the CBOT soybean futures market rose but was hindered and fluctuated to close lower on Monday. During the trading session, soybean meal rebounded and soybean oil slightly fell back. Agricultural consulting firm AgRural announced on Monday that as of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean planting rate had reached 95%, higher than the 91% in the same period last year. The US Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply and demand report on December 10th. Prior to the report, the market expected a slight increase in soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. The weather forecast shows that Brazil will experience favorable precipitation in the coming week. South American soybeans maintain optimistic production prospects, and the global soybean supply pattern will become more relaxed. The CRB index, which tracks the trends of 19 major commodities, rose 0.951% on Monday, driven by the rise in oil prices and a general increase in the commodity market.
Soybeans: The main production areas have sufficient soybean sources and overall stable spot prices. China Grain Reserves Corporation has launched the purchase of new season soybeans in many areas of Northeast China. The listed purchase price for national standard third class soybean net grain is 1.85 yuan/jin, and the purchase price for crude grain with a protein content of over 41% in many areas of Heilongjiang Province is between 1.90-2.00 yuan/jin. China Grain Reserves Corporation continues to sell old products and buy new ones. On Monday, the soybean futures market fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly lower, with spot prices continuing to operate in a sluggish manner, lacking demand boost, and overall bullish sentiment lacking. The night market was boosted by the general rise of commodities driven by domestic macroeconomic policies, and the soybean market stopped falling and rebounded. The purchase by China National Grain Reserves Corporation to support the market can help stop the decline of soybean spot prices, but the lack of pressing demand for domestically produced soybeans cannot resolve the long-term pressure of oversupply. The expectation of high soybean yields in South America limits the room for the rebound of US soybeans, and the upward driving force of the soybean futures market is still weak.
On Monday, domestic soybean meal spot prices remained stable but slightly weak, with a local drop of 10 yuan/ton. Coastal soybean meal prices mostly operated between 2820-2910 yuan/ton. Dongguan rapeseed meal prices have increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2060 yuan/ton. The lower than expected rapeseed production in Canada has eased the selling pressure on US soybeans, while soybean meal prices have fluctuated weakly. Downstream purchasing willingness is weak, and the upward momentum is still insufficient. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal futures market stopped falling and rebounded, closing higher. The performance of rapeseed meal futures was relatively strong due to the boost from foreign markets, lacking the support of the decline in US soybeans. Profit taking short positions reduced holdings to ease the selling pressure on soybean meal futures. The US Department of Agriculture is reporting soon, and the market is paying attention to changes in soybean production in South America. The rainfall forecast in Brazil is favorable for crop growth, and the lack of weather support to reduce production will strengthen the expectation of high yields. The domestic meal futures market has rebounded from oversold under the boost of domestic macro policies, but the supply pressure still needs time to be digested.
On Monday, the CBOT soybean oil futures market slightly fell, and the rebound pace slowed down. On Monday, the Malaysian palm oil futures market fluctuated and closed lower, with cautious trading awaiting guidance before MPOB's monthly report. MPOB is scheduled to release the monthly supply and demand report today. According to the previous survey, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decline to 1.79 million tons at the end of November, down 5.1% month on month, due to rainstorm disrupting production. According to data released by SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.65% month on month from December 1st to 5th. In addition, Indonesia's upcoming B40 biodiesel policy has also attracted attention. The increase in domestic palm oil consumption in Indonesia will compress the country's export capacity and exacerbate international palm oil supply shortages. On Monday, the domestic oil futures market continued to experience differentiation, with vegetable oil futures continuing to rise slightly due to lower than expected Canadian rapeseed production, while soybean oil futures fluctuated and fell under supply pressure in South America; Palm oil futures are fiercely contested between long and short positions. Although they have not held the intraday high, buying at low levels has limited the room for correction. The current bullish theme of palm oil production has not yet withdrawn, and the import cost of palm oil in China remains high. The continuous inversion of import profits makes it difficult to open the import window, and tight inventory remains a key support for the resistance of palm oil prices to decline. Domestic macro policies have stimulated a general rise in commodity prices, and the buying sentiment for soybean oil and vegetable oil futures has improved at low levels, which is expected to continue to correct the previous weakness. Palm oil futures, boosted by bullish themes from production areas and MPOB monthly reports, are expected to maintain a volatile and resistant state.