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According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 18th, China's corn imports in October were 250000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 87.7%; The total import volume of corn from January to October was 13.03 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.9%.
Due to the abundant harvest of corn in China this year, prices have fallen, prompting China to slow down imports in recent months.
Since China approved the import of Brazilian corn in 2022, Brazil has replaced the United States as the main corn supplier to China. This year's poor corn harvest in Brazil and strong domestic demand have also led to a decrease in the country's exports to China. According to data from the Brazilian government, Brazil exported over 2 million tons of corn to China from January to October this year, a decrease of 82% compared to the same period last year.
So far in 2024/25, China has hardly ordered US corn, far below the average level in recent years, partly due to China's attempt to diversify its supply.
Ukraine: Increase in corn production and export volume for 2024
According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, as of November 8th, Ukraine has harvested 49.9 million tons of grain. This total includes 22.3 million tons of wheat, 5.6 million tons of barley, 470400 tons of peas, and 20.2 million tons of corn.
Ukraine's First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Sviridenko stated that from January 1 to November 17, 2024, Ukraine's corn exports reached 25.5 million tons, worth 4.2 billion US dollars.
Taras Vysotskyi, the First Deputy Minister of Agriculture of Ukraine, stated on Tuesday that farmers will reduce soybean planting area by 2025 due to the drop in prices caused by this year's bumper soybean harvest; And the price of corn remains relatively high.
Vysotsky stated that Ukrainian farmers will switch back to planting corn next year. He estimates that by 2025, the corn planting area may increase by 500000 hectares, while soybeans may decrease by 500000 hectares.
Consulting firm SovEcon stated in a report that Ukraine's estimated corn production for 2024 has been raised by 1.6 million tons to 25.1 million tons due to relatively high production in the northern region. The company has raised its estimate for Ukrainian corn exports in 2024 by 1.3 million tons, reaching 20.3 million tons.
The report states that corn exports may slow down in the coming months as the EU's allocated import quota for Ukrainian corn is about to be exhausted. This may lead to Ukraine's corn exports shifting to other markets, including China.
Brazil: Multiple institutions increase Brazil's corn production for 2024/2025 and lower export volume
CONAB, the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company, predicts that Brazil's total corn production for 2024/25 will reach 119.8 million tons, an increase of approximately 70000 tons from last month's forecast, representing a growth of 4.1 million tons or 3.6% compared to the previous year; As a comparison, the US Department of Agriculture currently expects Brazil's total corn production to be 127 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons or 4.1% from the previous year's 122 million tons.
According to data released by consulting firm Safras&Mercado on Thursday, Brazil's total corn production for 2024/25 is estimated to be 134.8 million tons, more than 1 million tons higher than the September forecast, as the increase in corn area in the second season may exceed expectations. The estimated corn production for the second season is 96.33 million tons, higher than the September forecast of 94.64 million tons and an increase of over 10 million tons from the previous year. This is because the expected area of corn for the second season is 15.34 million hectares, higher than the forecast of 14.79 million hectares in September and an increase of 4.3% compared to the previous year.
CONAB expects Brazil's corn exports for 2024/25 to be estimated at 34 million tons, unchanged from last month's forecast and lower than the previous year's 36 million tons, which will be the lowest export volume since 2020/21. The estimated domestic consumption is 87.03 million tons, which is consistent with last month's forecast and higher than last year's 84.24 million tons, also a record high.
ANEC estimates that Brazil's corn exports in November were 4.77 million tons, lower than the 5.926 million tons in October. In 2024 (January to December), 41 million tons of corn will be exported, a 26.2% decrease from the record export volume of 55.56 million tons in 2023. This means that the export volume of corn in the last two months of this year was 11.58 million tons, lower than the 13.46 million tons in the same period last year.
Strong corn sales in the United States, with export sales exceeding 2 million tons for four consecutive weeks for the first time in history
Due to Trump's repeated statements during the campaign to impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods, coupled with Chicago corn futures prices approaching a four-year low, a strong wave of export sales in the United States has been triggered, most notably in corn. Export sales to traditional buyers such as Mexico have surged, and from October 3 to 31, for the first time in history, net sales of US corn exceeded 2 million tons for four consecutive weeks.
US President elect Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese products, which may trigger a counterattack from China, with US agricultural products bearing the brunt, just like what happened during Trump's first term in 2018. At that time, China imposed tariffs on American agricultural products such as soybeans and corn in response to the US tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods.
In November, the US Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report lowered China's corn import target for the third consecutive month, lowering China's corn import volume for 2024/25 (October to September) to 16 million tons of corn, a decrease of 3 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 7.4 million tons or 31.7% from the previous year's 23.41 million tons.
Türkiye: Reduce the import tariff of corn and reduce the domestic corn production
The government of Türkiye reduced the corn import tariff from 130% to 5% from October 10 to December 31, and the corn import volume was set at 1 million tons to meet the domestic demand, because the corn output in 2024/25 may decrease.
The reduction of import tariffs helps stimulate import demand, and many importers take advantage of this opportunity to purchase. But with the new season of corn crops coming on the market in November, domestic prices have fallen, prompting exporters to lower their quotes. Nevertheless, imported corn still cannot maintain competitiveness.
Türkiye is a major corn importer in the world. From January to September this year, Türkiye imported 3.2 million tons of corn, higher than 1.9 million tons in the same period last year, of which 1.6 million tons came from Ukraine, accounting for more than 50% of the total imports.
According to the data of the US Department of Agriculture, Türkiye's corn production is expected to be 7 million tons in 2024, 1.4 million tons less than last year. The domestic consumption is expected to be 8.4 million tons, mainly used for the production of animal feed.