Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of Agricultural Products in China in November 2024-Corporate news-Zhengzhou Jiuyu Supply Chain Management Corporation

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Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of Agricultural Products in China in November 2024

Publish in 2024-11-12 10:27:30

Corn: According to customs data, the import volume of corn in China for the year 2023/24 will be increased by 410000 tons to 23.41 million tons this month, and the balance will be adjusted to 17.24 million tons. There will be no adjustment to the forecast data for 2024/25. The new season of corn has been launched in large quantities, and the market supply is sufficient. The consumption of corn for feed has steadily increased, and the willingness of deep processing enterprises to build warehouses has strengthened. The collection and storage of corn has steadily advanced, and the overall progress of farmers' grain sales is faster than last year. The meteorological department predicts that there will be more precipitation in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, northern Xinjiang and other areas in November, which may have adverse effects on autumn grain storage and transportation.

Corn analyst Gao Haixiu

Soybeans: According to customs data, the import volume of soybeans for 2023/24 will be increased by 2.45 million tons to 104.74 million tons this month.

There will be no adjustment to the market supply and demand data for 2024/25 this month. The harvest in the main soybean producing areas in China is coming to an end, and new soybeans are concentrated on the market with sufficient supply. The protein content in the southern production areas is relatively high, and the characteristics of high quality and good price are obvious. China Grain Reserves Corporation, 93, and COFCO Trading have entered the market for procurement, and the market atmosphere has become more active compared to the previous period, with an accelerated pace of purchase and sales. The new season soybean production in the United States has set a record high, with improved weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas, accelerated sowing, and loose global soybean supply.

Chief Soybean Analyst Zhang Jing

Cotton: This month's forecast for cotton production, consumption, and imports for the new year remains unchanged from last month's forecast. Cotton picking has entered the final stage, and the overall picking progress is faster than in previous years. According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of October 31st, the progress of new cotton picking in China was 85.2%, an increase of 8.5 percentage points year-on-year.

Cotton Chief Analyst Yuan Ruiling

Edible vegetable oil: This month, based on customs data, the estimated values of edible oilseed and vegetable oil trade data for 2023/24 were calibrated, and the estimated production of edible vegetable oil was adjusted accordingly. This month's estimated production of edible vegetable oil in China is 30.8 million tons, an increase of 180000 tons from the previous month's estimate; The import volume was 8.07 million tons, a decrease of 30000 tons from the estimated value last month.

This month, the forecast for the supply and demand of edible vegetable oil in China for 2024/25 remains unchanged. Since October, most parts of Jiangnan have normal light and heat, which is conducive to the sowing and seedling cultivation of rapeseed; Most of the soil moisture in the southwestern region is suitable, which is conducive to the survival of rapeseed transplantation. The development period of rapeseed in most regions is close to or earlier than the same period of the year. In the later stage, we should be cautious of the potential adverse effects of drought in some areas of eastern Jianghan and northern Jiangnan on rapeseed.

Li Songlin, Chief Analyst of Edible Vegetable Oil

Sugar: According to customs data, the estimated national sugar import data for 2023/24 will be calibrated this month, with a sugar import volume of 4.75 million tons, a decrease of 250000 tons from last month's estimate.

No adjustments will be made to the forecast data for 2024/25 this month. At present, sugar mills in major production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Yunnan have successively opened for extraction, and new sugar has been launched one after another. Sugar imports are at a high level, and the supply is relatively sufficient. Consumption is in the traditional off-season, and traders and terminals mainly purchase according to demand. Sugar production in central and southern Brazil is coming to an end, and expected output has been lowered; Major producing countries such as India and Thailand are entering the sugar season, with an expected increase in production. In the later stage, we can focus on the production and sales of domestic sugar beet sugar, the progress of sugarcane sugar mills, and the import of sugar.

Guo Junping, Chief Sugar Analyst

China Corn Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

2022/23 2023/24 (estimated in November) 2024/25 (predicted in October) 2024/25 (predicted in November) 1000 hectares
Sown area: 43,070 44,219 44,886 44,886
Harvested area: 43,070 44,219 44,886 44,886
Yield per hectare (kg per hectare): 6,436 6,532 6,617 6,617
Output (10,000 tons): 27,720 28,884 29,701 29,701
Imports: 1,871 2,341 1,300 1,300
Consumption: 29,051 29,500 29,964 29,964
Food consumption: 9,809 9,910 1,000 1,000
Feed consumption: 18,800 19,100 19,350 19,350
Industrial consumption: 8,100 8,238 8,450 8,450
Seed usage: 191 193 196 196
Losses and others: 980 978 968 968
Exports: 11 11
Balance changes: 539 172 410 361 1036
Average wholesale price in domestic corn producing areas (yuan per ton): 2,744 2,379 2,500 - 2,700 2,500 - 2,700
Average price of imported corn after arriving at the shore and paying taxes (yuan per ton): 2,682 2,142 2,250 - 2,350 2,250 - 2,350

Note: The annual corn market is from October of the current year to September of the next year.

China Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

2022/23

2023/24

(November estimate)

2024/25

(October forecast)

2024/25

(November forecast)

1000 hectares

seeded area

ten thousand two hundred and forty-three

ten thousand four hundred and seventy

ten thousand one hundred and sixty-three

Harvested area

ten thousand two hundred and forty-three

ten thousand four hundred and seventy

ten thousand one hundred and sixty-three

Kilogram per hectare

Per unit yield

one thousand nine hundred and eighty

one thousand nine hundred and ninety-one

two thousand and twenty-one

10000 tons

yield

two thousand and twenty-eight

two thousand and eighty-four

two thousand and fifty-four

Import

nine thousand seven hundred and fifty

ten thousand four hundred and seventy-four

nine thousand four hundred and sixty

consumption

eleven thousand four hundred and fifteen

eleven thousand six hundred and ninety-four

eleven thousand four hundred and fifty-six

Squeeze consumption

nine thousand five hundred and ninety-three

nine thousand seven hundred and fifty

nine thousand four hundred and ninety

Food consumption

one thousand four hundred and thirty-two

one thousand five hundred and thirty-five

one thousand five hundred and sixty

Seed dosage

ninety

eighty-nine

eighty-eight

Losses and Others

three hundred

three hundred and twenty

three hundred and eighteen

Export

nine

eighteen

Balance changes

three hundred and fifty-four

eight hundred and fifty-five

forty

Yuan per ton

Wholesale average price of domestic soybeans in sales areas

five thousand nine hundred and eighty-two

five thousand and four

5400-5600

Average price of imported soybeans after arrival tax

five thousand two hundred and eighty-eight

four thousand and eighty-four

4600-4800

Note: The soybean market year is from October of the current year to September of the following year.

China Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

2022/23

2023/24

(November estimate)

2024/25

(October forecast)

2024/25

(November forecast)

10000 tons

opening inventory

seven hundred and thirteen

seven hundred and twelve

eight hundred and twenty-eight

1000 hectares

seeded area

three thousand

two thousand seven hundred and eighty-eight

two thousand seven hundred and forty-seven

Harvested area

three thousand

two thousand seven hundred and eighty-eight

two thousand seven hundred and forty-seven

Kilogram per hectare

Per unit yield

one thousand nine hundred and ninety-two

two thousand and fifteen

two thousand and eighty-two

10000 tons

yield

five hundred and ninety-eight

five hundred and sixty-two

five hundred and seventy-two

Import

one hundred and forty-three

three hundred and twenty-five

two hundred

consumption

seven hundred and forty

seven hundred and sixty-nine

seven hundred and eighty

Export

two

one

three

End of period inventory

seven hundred and twelve

eight hundred and twenty-eight

eight hundred and seventeen

Yuan per ton

Domestic cotton average price of 3128B

sixteen thousand and ninety-two

sixteen thousand six hundred and ninety-two

16000-18000

Cents per pound

Cotlook A

index

ninety-nine

ninety point six zero

85-115

Note: The cotton market year is from September of the current year to August of the following year.

China Edible Vegetable Oil Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

2022/23

2023/24

(November estimate)

2024/25

(October forecast)

2024/25

(November forecast)

10000 tons

production

three thousand and twenty-three

three thousand and eighty

three thousand and five

Among them: soybean oil

one thousand seven hundred and forty-nine

one thousand seven hundred and seventy-six

one thousand seven hundred and thirty

Rapeseed oil

seven hundred and fifty-four

seven hundred and eighty-four

seven hundred and twenty-nine

Peanut oil

three hundred and forty-one

three hundred and sixty

three hundred and eighty-three

Import

nine hundred and ninety-three

eight hundred and seven

eight hundred and forty-three

Among them: Palm oil

four hundred and seventy-one

three hundred and thirty

four hundred and fifty

Rapeseed oil

one hundred and ninety-eight

two hundred and four

one hundred and fifty

Soybean oil

forty

thirty-eight

fifty

Domestic consumption

three thousand six hundred and ninety-two

three thousand seven hundred and thirty-five

three thousand six hundred and sixty-five

Resident consumption

three thousand four hundred and eighty-two

three thousand four hundred and eighty-five

three thousand four hundred and eleven

Feed and other consumption

two hundred and ten

two hundred and fifty

two hundred and fifty-four

Export

sixteen

seventeen

twenty-seven

twenty-six

Balance changes

three hundred and seven

one hundred and thirty-six

one hundred and fifty-seven

Yuan per ton

Domestic soybean oil

Factory price

eight thousand eight hundred and sixty-two

seven thousand eight hundred and forty-eight

8000-10000

Imported Palm Oil

Dutiable value

eight thousand and ninety-three

seven thousand eight hundred and forty-one

7000-9500

Domestic rapeseed oil

Factory price

ten thousand seven hundred and forty-seven

eight thousand seven hundred and forty

9000-11000

Domestic peanut oil

Factory price

sixteen thousand seven hundred and five

fifteen thousand three hundred and twenty-five

15500-17000

Imported soybean oil

Dutiable value

nine thousand eight hundred and ninety-seven

eight thousand and two

7500-9500

Note: 1. The annual market period for edible vegetable oil is from October of the current year to September of the following year. 2. Palm oil statistics do not include palm stearin. 3. The domestic prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil are third grade soybean oil, third grade rapeseed oil, and first grade peanut oil, respectively. The price of palm oil is the arrival price of 24 degree palm oil at the port.

China Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet

2022/23

2023/24

(November estimate)

2024/25

(October forecast)

2024/25

(November forecast)

1000 hectares

Sugar sowing area

one thousand two hundred and eighty-four

one thousand two hundred and sixty-two

one thousand three hundred and ninety-six

Sugar cane

one thousand one hundred and two

one thousand and ninety-five

one thousand one hundred and eighty

beet

one hundred and eighty-two

one hundred and sixty-seven

two hundred and sixteen

Sugar harvest area

one thousand two hundred and eighty-four

one thousand two hundred and sixty-two

one thousand three hundred and ninety-six

Sugar cane

one thousand one hundred and two

one thousand and ninety-five

one thousand one hundred and eighty

beet

one hundred and eighty-two

one hundred and sixty-seven

two hundred and sixteen

Ton per hectare

Sugar yield per unit area

fifty-one point six

sixty point seven

fifty-eight point seven

Sugar cane

fifty-six point four

sixty-six point five

sixty-four point one

beet

forty-six point nine

fifty-four point nine

fifty-three point two

10000 tons

Sugar production

eight hundred and ninety-seven

12 hours a day 6 days a week

one thousand and one hundred

Sugarcane sugar

seven hundred and eighty-nine

eight hundred and eighty-two

nine hundred and fifty

Beet sugar

one hundred and eight

one hundred and fourteen

one hundred and fifty

Sugar import volume

three hundred and eighty-nine

four hundred and seventy-five

five hundred

Sugar consumption

one thousand five hundred and thirty-five

one thousand five hundred and fifty

one thousand five hundred and eighty

Sugar export volume

eighteen point five

fifteen

sixteen

Balance changes

-268

-94

four

Cents per pound

International sugar prices

twenty-two point five zero

twenty-one point seven zero

17-22

Yuan per ton

Domestic sugar prices

six thousand three hundred and forty-six

six thousand four hundred and ninety-two

6000-6700

Note: The sugar market year is from October of the current year to September of the following year.

[Note]: The Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Team (CASDE), which is mainly supported by the Early Warning Information Analysis Team (EWIA Team), is responsible for analyzing the supply and demand situation of agricultural products in China.

Special statement from experts: The views presented in this report are the predicted results of the team's research and should not be used as a direct basis for investment or operation. As referenced, we do not assume any responsibility.