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As the third quarter of 2024 draws to a close, the growth of economies in various regions is receiving much attention, especially with the release of GDP data for the new quarter in October. For many families, expecting economic growth and a bountiful autumn harvest in their hometown is a natural wish. In order to better understand the economic trends in various regions, we can start with the operation of exports. Although the proportion of export-oriented economies varies significantly among regions, export data can still provide us with reference.
Firstly, from the perspective of national commodity exports, there have been slight fluctuations in performance in recent months. Although the month on month data for the previous quarters has declined, the year-on-year growth has reached 6.2%, showing a significant improvement compared to the beginning of the year, indicating that the foreign trade situation is still improving. This change undoubtedly indicates that despite the unstable global economic environment, China's foreign trade still demonstrates resilience.
However, upon closer inspection of the export trends of various provinces and cities, we will find significant differences in their performance. Overall, the export growth in the southeastern coastal region remains stable, while the growth rate in the central and western regions and other areas fluctuates significantly. The growth differences between provinces are mainly due to the insufficient strength and experience of each province in the export field.
In the southeastern coastal region, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu provinces are undoubtedly the backbone of exports. The total export value of these three provinces accounts for over 50% of the national export value, becoming the cornerstone of the country's foreign trade. From the data of the first three quarters of this year, it is their outstanding performance that has supported the stable growth of national exports.
Specifically, the year-on-year growth of exports from Zhejiang and Jiangsu was 7.8%, which has returned to normal levels before the epidemic, with export values reaching 2.91 trillion and 2.65 trillion yuan respectively. Guangdong Province, which has shown the most outstanding performance, still achieved a high growth rate of 9.1% even with a base of 4 trillion yuan, and its export value at the end of the third quarter has approached 4.4 trillion yuan. In contrast, although the growth rate in Fujian Province is relatively low, its 6.7% growth rate also exceeds the national average, reflecting the overall good foreign trade environment along the southeast coast.
Contrary to the steady growth along the southeast coast, there have been significant fluctuations in exports in other regions. For example, some export provinces in the north, such as Shandong and Hebei, have relatively stable growth rates, while Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning and other places have failed to keep up with the national pace of growth, with Beijing's growth rate being only 2.1%. In the central and western regions, the situation is even more severe, with significant differences in growth rates, which is surprising.
Sichuan and Chongqing, as strong export provinces in the central and western regions, performed poorly in the first three quarters, with a growth rate of only about 2%. What is even more worrying is that the exports of Henan, Hunan, and Jiangxi have experienced a significant decline, with Henan down 11.2% year-on-year and its export value dropping to over 330 billion yuan, ranking 12th domestically; The decline in Hunan and Jiangxi is even more severe, reaching 20.8% and 30% respectively. This trend is clearly inconsistent with the overall trend of positive exports, and the reason worth paying attention to may be due to the previous data inflation phenomenon.
In contrast, the export performance of provinces such as Shaanxi and Guangxi has shown significant growth, which further highlights the differences in foreign trade performance among different regions. Among the strong export provinces in the central and western regions, Anhui and Hubei have shown particularly outstanding performance, both achieving a year-on-year growth of over 8.5%. Anhui's export value is close to 420 billion yuan, which undoubtedly injects vitality into the regional economy.
So, why can the southeastern coastal region maintain steady growth while other regions experience abnormal fluctuations? This may be related to the long-term accumulation of commodity exports in the southeastern coastal provinces. After decades of deep cultivation and meticulous work, these regions are obviously more mature in business concepts and adaptability, able to quickly grasp market changes and achieve recovery with the help of favorable foreign trade environment.
Relatively speaking, the northern and central western regions have insufficient export capacity and relatively imperfect product structure. Therefore, in the overall trend of foreign trade recovery, some regions have shown significant lag, forming different market scenarios.