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As of the week ending September 22nd, the price of fourth grade wheat in the southern region has increased, while prices in the central and Volga River regions have decreased. The price in the southern region increased by 250 rubles, reaching 14600-15000 rubles per ton (excluding value-added tax, EXW grain warehouse); The price in the central region of Russia has dropped by 300 rubles, to 1320-13800 rubles per ton; The price in the Volga River region has dropped by 750 rubles, to 13000 to 135000 rubles per ton. The expected high yield, combined with Kazakhstan's ban on importing Russian wheat, has led to a decrease in demand prices in Siberia by 650 rubles, dropping to 9000-10000 rubles per ton, the lowest level since autumn 2022 and spring 2023.
The price of third grade wheat from the main production area to the processing plant without value-added tax is about 11500-13000 rubles per ton. The price of wheat in deepwater ports has increased by 100 rubles, reaching 16600-16700 rubles per ton (excluding value-added tax), while the price in shallow water ports remains unchanged at 15200 rubles per ton.
Analysts from Rusagrotrans compared prices for the same period last year: 15100 rubles/ton for deepwater ports and 11800 rubles/ton for shallow water ports. The CPT Novorossiysk railway delivery price is 1730-17800 rubles per ton (an increase of 300 rubles per ton compared to the previous week). The export price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat delivered in September and October remained at around $216-217 per ton offshore, while the export price in November exceeded $220 per ton. At the same time, French wheat rose by $1 to $246 per ton; US wheat rose by $2 to reach $248 per ton; German wheat fell by $2 to reach $252 per ton.
According to analysts from Rusagrotrans, the wheat market on the exchange experienced a decline after a rapid rise last week due to a decrease in US wheat sales and an increase in Black Sea wheat supply, but the short positions on the exchange have decreased by half in the past month. In the positive news for the Russian market, they took note of a report by the French Ministry of Agriculture, FranceAgriMer, which lowered France's forecast for soft wheat exports outside the European Union by 3.5 million tons to 4 million tons; The export volume forecast for the EU has been lowered by 500000 tons to 6 million tons. Due to insufficient soil moisture, the proportion of wheat with excellent sowing conditions in Argentina has decreased from 80% to 71% (78% in 2023). In addition, Brazil has increased its wheat import quota for countries outside the Southern Common Market by 250000 tons in 2024, reaching 1 million tons. The quota of 750000 tons has been filled with supplies from Russia (500000 tons), the United States (257000 tons), and Canada (35000 tons).
According to the Rusagrotrans analysis center's forecast, Russia's wheat exports in September will reach a record high of 5.5 million tons, including exports to countries in the Eurasian Economic Union. Previously, analysts estimated the export potential to be 5.3 million tons. About 2.6 million tons of wheat were shipped to foreign markets in the first half of this month.