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According to foreign media reports, due to the strong wheat harvest and relatively low prices in the United States, the US Department of Agriculture predicts that US wheat exports will reach a four-year high in 2024/25. The strong export momentum of US wheat so far this year also seems to support this forecast. However, according to American columnist Karen Braun, US wheat exports will still face fierce competition from Russia, the world's top exporter, for the rest of this year.
As of September 19th, the total inspection volume of wheat exports from the United States in 2024/25 (June to May of the following year) has reached nearly 7.7 million tons, which is 39% higher than the same period last year.
August and September are usually the peak season for wheat exports in the United States, and last week's export inspection volume reached its highest level in two years. Recently, the main customers of American wheat include Mexico, South Korea, and the Philippines. So far, the total inspection volume of wheat in 2024/25 accounts for 34% of the US Department of Agriculture's annual export forecast, reaching a seven-year high. The wheat inventory ratio of major exporting countries in 2024/25 will drop to the lowest level in 17 years, coupled with relatively low wheat prices in the United States for most of this year, which will bring business to American exporters.
The US Department of Agriculture predicts that US wheat exports will account for 10.4% of the global market share in 2024/25, the highest proportion in three years and higher than the historical low share of 8.7% set in 2023/24.
Twenty years ago, US wheat accounted for about a quarter of global wheat exports, but despite having a lower market share than in previous years, the US is still expected to become the fourth largest exporter in 2024/25.
However, it should be noted that the recent strong export momentum of US wheat does not guarantee smooth sailing in the future.
In the past decade, for seven years, the final export volume of wheat in the United States did not meet the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture in September, including those years with strong export performance at the beginning of the year. The sustained growth of Russian wheat exports may be the main reason. Despite the reduction in wheat production in Russia this year, according to the analysis center of Rusagrotrans, Russia's wheat exports are expected to reach a record high of 5.5 million tons in September, higher than the previously estimated 5.3 million tons and comparable to the record level of the same period in 2023.
The US Department of Agriculture tends to underestimate Russian wheat production in September. In the past decade, the US Department of Agriculture has underestimated the scale of Russian wheat production in its annual September supply and demand reports. The final wheat production in Russia for 2023/24 is 6.5 million tons or 8% higher than the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture in September last year.
The US Department of Agriculture currently predicts that Russia's wheat production in 2024/25 will drop to the lowest level in three years, 83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9%. However, the export potential of Russian wheat should not be underestimated. With the steady decline in domestic wheat consumption in Russia, the proportion of wheat exports to total production is higher than in any previous year.
The export price of Russian wheat has also been lower than that of most parts of the world recently, but with the decrease in export supply, it is expected that the price of Russian wheat will rise in the coming months.
Russian farmers are currently sowing winter wheat harvested in 2025. So far, the sowing progress is slightly behind the same period last year. Extreme drought in some major winter wheat producing areas may lead to a reduction in total area and may affect crop emergence. The weather forecast shows that there will be no relief for at least two weeks. However, Russia's weather issues will need to persist for a longer period of time in order to significantly increase export opportunities for wheat suppliers such as the United States next year.