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Russia's sunflower seed oil production in 2023/24 (September to August of the following year) may reach 7.75-7.8 million tons, an increase of 16 to 17 percentage points from the previous year.
Analyst Anton Tranin of the company stated that the reason for the increase in sunflower seed oil production is due to the record breaking sunflower seed production in Russia in 2022/23, as well as the increase in crushing capacity.
In recent years, the production of sunflower seed oil in Russia has shown an increasing trend. According to the Federal Statistical Service of Russia, the production of sunflower oil in Russia reached 6.7 million tons in the first 10 months of 2023/24, from September 2023 to June 2024.
Traning stated that the conservative forecast for sunflower seed oil production this year is 7.5 million tons. A more realistic production forecast is 7.75 to 7.8 million tons. According to optimistic expectations, if the production in July and August maintains high growth, the final production may approach 8 million tons, and the year-on-year increase in annual production will reach 20%.
For the next fiscal year, the production of sunflower seeds in Russia may decrease by 6-8% year-on-year in 2024/25, due to a decrease in production in the southern region and damage to crops caused by adverse weather conditions.
At present, the amount of sunflower seed oil sold domestically is about 2.4 million tons, accounting for about one-third of the current annual production.
Unlike sunflower seed oil, the domestic demand for sunflower seed meal in Russia is higher, accounting for about two-thirds of the annual production.
The average price of sunflower seed meal in July was $211.2 per ton, higher than $198.6 per ton in June. Therefore, the export tariff on sunflower seed meal doubled in August, from 901.3 rubles per ton in July to 1869.7 rubles per ton.